Will a LLM/elicit be able to do proper causal modeling (identifying papers that didn't control for covariates) in 2024?
Basic
1
Ṁ10Jan 1
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Especially the melatonin=>longevity paper Mike Lustgarten tweeted
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
43% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)
25% chance
Will a Psychology paper containing false data generated by a LLM tool be published in an accredited journal in 2024?
36% chance
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
55% chance
Will a paper falsified (or containing false data generated) by a LLM tool be published in an accredited journal in 2024?
68% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?
84% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025?
19% chance
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <500 billion parameters?
15% chance