Which country will detonate the first nuclear weapon before 2025? (tests included)
Basic
15
Ṁ1483
Jan 1
73%
[None]
18%
Russia
5%
North Korea
1.7%
Israel

If a nuclear weapon is detonated before 2025, resolves to the country that detonated it (if it isn't listed, it will be expanded out of Other). If no nuclear detonation occurs before then, resolves [None]. If the detonation was by a non-state actor, resolves [Non-state actor]. If the detonation remains unattributed 1 month after the detonation, resolves [Unattributed].

  • Test detonations are included.

  • Accidental detonations are included.

  • A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives.

    • I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count.

    • An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count.

  • The timezone for this market is UTC

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules