Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as "Yes" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide, as reported by Our World in Data, during the 2024 PHEIC period (from the declaration date to the termination date or the question close date, whichever comes first) exceeds 66,387 (the total number of confirmed cases during the 2022-2023 PHEIC period).

The question will resolve as "No" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide during the 2024 PHEIC period remains at or below 66,387. If no PHEIC is declared for the 2024 mpox outbreak, the question will resolve as "Ambiguous".

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.