50 Call EOY 2024 on "In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?" (2x)
Basic
2
Ṁ185Jan 1
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to 2 * max(px - 50, 0)
Where px is settlement price of Scott Alexander's AI movie market at the end of 2024.
If the linked market is trading at 40%, this resolves to 0%. If the linked market is trading at 65%, this resolves to 30%.
Settlement details: I'll take the volume weighted average price over the last 24 hours of 2024. I may tweak or slightly randomize settlement time to improve fairness. I won't trade in either market leading up to settlement.
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
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