You can find a similar market for the postseason here:

Way too much EV left on the table not to take the YES side of this, even now at the end of week 11…

~38% chance of at least 1 tie over the remaining games based on the 2018-2023 seasons sharing the current OT rules

Although 6 seasons of data is as bad as it gets in terms of sample size, there’s no reason to suggest that outcomes over the long-term would diverge meaningfully from what we’ve seen over past 6 seasons in terms of ties

@damone I think that in the long run the likelihood of ties decreases a bit as field goals are made from longer and longer distances. 60 is the new 50 or something.

@BrunoParga good point — didn’t consider that factor but makes sense

@BrunoParga just pure speculating now too but maybe as teams realize exactly what they need to clinch a playoff chance they become less risk averse and like ties less (and therefore go for winning plays)?

@NoahRich I think that could be a factor, especially since, if I'm not mistaken, analytics shows that teams often leave expected points on the table. But at the same time, don't the dynamics of overtime encourage conservative play at least in some situations? Let's imagine a situation: the game is tied with 2:10 minutes left in overtime, you're facing 4th and 5 from the 45; you're average on all four of offense, defense, kicking and punting.

That's a pretty bad situation: too long to be confident in a field goal or going for it, a bit short to be confident in a non-touchback if punting. Still, I think a team that would go for it during regulation might punt in this situation, counting on the tie rather than trying to win with a field goal or going for it; if you lose, you give good field position with enough time for the opponent to reach good field goal distance.

@NoahRich then again this might be just me coping and seething about the Colts going for 2 down 1 against the Pats and winning.

Sweepified!