Manifold AI Forecasts
Live prediction market odds on all things AI
Countdown to AGIThe market expects we achieve artificial general intelligence by 2029... What do you think?yearsmonthsdayshoursminutesseconds
Trending
AGI Timelines
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8%
โฅ70%
4%
โฅ85%
Resolved
YESโฅ50%
CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
What Is Artificial Superintelligence? | IBM
Artificial superintelligence is a hypothetical software-based AI system with intellect beyond human intelligence.
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
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OpenAI
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Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?5% chance
3%
Before December 2024
7%
Before January 2025
21%
Before February 2025
42%
Before March 2025
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Business Insider
OpenAI starts training its 'next frontier model' and takes action on safety concerns
CEO Sam Altman is one of four directors on a new committee that plans to make "critical safety and security decisions" at OpenAI.
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CNN
OpenAI unveils newest AI model, GPT-4o | CNN Business
OpenAI on Monday announced its latest artificial intelligence large language model that it says will be easier and more intuitive to use.
98.4%
Read .docx, .pptx and .xlsx files
97%
Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked
85%
Order a pizza for you
79%
Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.
Business Insider
OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say
The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.
38%
2024 or 2025
25%
2026 or 2027
22%
2028 or 2029
16%
Not before 2030
Business Insider
Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report
Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
97%
It won't release during 2024
1%
It will release between May and October 2024
1%
It will release in November 2024
3%
It will release in December 2024
TechCrunch
Diffusion transformers are the key behind OpenAI's Sora -- and they're set to upend GenAI | TechCrunch
At the heart of Sora and Stable Diffusion 3.0 is a type of AI model architecture called the diffusion transformer.
61%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
50%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
69%
A second major version of the model has been released
13%
A third major version of the model has been released
Resolved
YESAdam DโAngelo
Resolved
YESSam Altman
Resolved
YESBret Taylor
Resolved
YESLarry Summers
Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News
Sama Drama
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100%99.0%
Sam Altman (Current CEO)
0.1%
(No One, or Unknown)
0.1%
Mira Murati (Current CTO, Former Interim CEO)
0.1%
Greg Brockman (Current President)
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The Verge
Lawyers say OpenAI could be in real trouble with Scarlett Johansson
OpenAI might find itself in legal trouble if Scarlett Johansson decides to use Californiaโs right to publicity rules to protect her voice and identity against ChatGPT.
Vox
Leaked OpenAI documents reveal aggressive tactics toward former employees
Has Sam Altman told the truth about OpenAIโs NDA scandal? How the OpenAI CEO and other key players treated the question of vested equity, explained.
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The Verge
OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever is officially leaving
Ilya Sutskever, the OpenAI co-founder and chief scientist who reportedly led the infamous failed coup against Sam Altman, is unsurprisingly leaving the company.
18%
They will publicly show some novel results in 2024
48%
More people think it will be net-positive for the world than net-negative, based on a Manifold poll in December
22%
Someone in an Executive or Director role at a FAANG or MAMAA company resigns to join the project within 1 month of the announcement
58%
It's related to the medical or scientific research industry
AI Doom
Vox
The case for taking AI seriously as a threat to humanity
Ensuring machine learning programs are aligned could be one of the biggest existential problems of our time.
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MIT Technology Review
Now we know what OpenAIโs superalignment team has been up to
The firm wants to prevent a superintelligence from going rogue. This is the first step.
GPT-5
Ars Technica
GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a โmaterially betterโ update to ChatGPT
Sources say to expect OpenAIโs next major AI model mid-2024, according to a new report.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
In an interview posted March 18th, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says:
Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?
Sam Altman(01:06:15) I donโt know. Thatโs the honest answer.
Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, thatโs the honest answer. Blink twice if itโs this year.
Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I donโt know what weโll call it.
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TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
72%
Video modality(Input or Output)
96%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
96%
Image Modality(Output)
Sora/Hollywood
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The Verge
OpenAI is pitching Sora to Hollywood.
The AI company is scheduled to meet with a number of studios, talent agencies, and media executives in Los Angeles next week to discuss partnerships, sources familiar with the matter tell Bloomberg. Getting more filmmakers familiar with Sora, OpenAIโs upcoming text-to-video generator, is a major goal of the meetings. Although Sora is still awaiting a public release later this year, Bloomberg reports that a few A-list directors and actors have already been given access.
61%
It will be the SOTA for text to video
50%
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
69%
A second major version of the model has been released
13%
A third major version of the model has been released
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Premium
What Are AI Hallucinations? | IBM
AI hallucinations are when a large language model (LLM) perceives patterns or objects that are nonexistent, creating nonsensical or inaccurate outputs.
Cartoon Brew
New Report Confirms Worst Fears: AI Will Disrupt Countless Animation Jobs Over Next 3 Years
The startling report makes one thing clear: generative AI is here today and wreaking havoc right now.
GPT-5 Capabilities
TechRadar
Sam Altman hints at the future of AI and GPT-5 - and big things are coming
GPT-5 on the horizon, as Altman drops hints
48%
to be N/A'd : Seed answer to create a market
72%
Video modality(Input or Output)
96%
Audio Modality(Input or Output)
96%
Image Modality(Output)
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Plus
Plus
Plus