Will Saudi Arabia end male guardianship over adult women by 2030?
53%
chance

According to Wikipedia:

In August 2019, a royal decree was published in the Saudi official gazette Um al-Qura that would allow Saudi women over 21 to obtain passports and travel abroad without male guardian permission. The decree also gave women the rights to register a marriage, divorce or birth or obtain official family documents; and gave the mother the right to be a legal guardian of a child. The date of the measures officially come into force was not stated in the decree.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_anti_male-guardianship_campaign#Moves_toward_equality

And Human Rights Watch (March 2023):

The Personal Status Law requires women to obtain a male guardian’s permission to marry, codifying the country’s longstanding practice. Married women are required to obey their husbands in a “reasonable manner.” A husband’s financial support is specifically contingent on a wife’s “obedience,” and she can lose her right to such support if she refuses without a “legitimate excuse” to have sex with him, move to or live in the marital home, or travel with him. The law further states that neither spouse may abstain from sexual relations or cohabitation without the other spouse’s consent, implying a marital right to intercourse.

Some articles cite a 2019 law that allowed guardian-free marriage and divorce, but that was apparently not implemented and the 2022 law appears to have codified the opposite. This question is just about the legal rights of women and not the lived experience of targeted harassment or other silencing.

To resolve YES, it must be the legal default for an adult woman (defined as over the age of 21) to, without permission of a male guardian:

  • travel internationally (allowed in 2022)

  • make decisions on jobs or higher education

  • make decisions on marriage or divorce

And by default, adult women shouldn't have any male who serves as their legal guardian. Hopefully this should be obvious one way or the other, but I won't bet in this market since it might be a judgement call. I'd probably lean towards resolving this on the consensus of Western media. If the Kingdom fully abolishes the male guardianship system but then reinstates it, this market still resolves to YES.

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