If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ3172029
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Conditional on the ICC bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.
42%
Conditional on the ICC not bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.
The condition of "bringing/not bringing charges" will be resolved according to the corresponding Metaculus question. Note that the announcement of either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient.
After that, the question with its condition not met will be resolved as N/A.
The remaining question will be resolved as YES if any current member (state party) of the ICC (at the time of market start) announces its withdrawal, or as NO on January 1, 2030. Note that they should announce it after market start, not necessarily after the condition is resolved.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024?
22% chance
[Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
86% chance
Will the ICC indict Netanyahu for war crimes before January 1st 2025?
91% chance
Will an Israeli military/political leader be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2026?
87% chance
Conditional on a warrant, will Netanyahu visit at least one nation that recognizes ICC jurisdiction within 6 months?
27% chance
Will Netanyahu's coalition collapse by the end of 2024?
54% chance
Will Netanyahu be convicted of a crime by end of 2024?
21% chance
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of September 2024?
30% chance
Will Netanyahu remain Israel's PM until the end of 2024?
84% chance