Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
Plus
68
แน17kDec 31
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14899/1000-deaths-from-israeliran-conflict/
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.
If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as Ambiguous
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
8% chance
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?
6% chance
Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
35% chance
Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before 2025?
18% chance
How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?
Will at least 100 Israelis or Palestinians be killed by Iranian missiles before 2025?
19% chance
Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?
66% chance
Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
80% chance
Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing >400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?
Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?