Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count. I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.
Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:
Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.
Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.
Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.
Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.
Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.
1,000
3.00@yum intent matters but cannot be directly known. Your scenario would be a “no”, Dr Strangelove would be a yes regardless of his posthoc explanation.
@AbuElBanat if intent matters how come the description says Musk on January 20th would've counted and "not have been close"? The consensus is that there was no intention to randomly praise Hitler during a speech about efficient government and traveling to Mars, in the middle of giving his heart to the crowd.
I don't trust your judgment due to the contradicting description and this comment
@PeterNjeim I don’t think there is such a consensus, indeed it seems rather controversial. I will not try to persuade you, but to clarify for market participants: confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary. Doing the gesture as an effort to troll counts. Doing the gesture repeatedly at a political rally will count despite denials. If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count. If somebody is raising their right arm e.g. at a medical exam as written above that will not count. Hailing a taxi also would not count. Hope that helps.
@AbuElBanat it does help. I was citing this very own website's poll on the matter, showing a decent majority saying there was no intention to praise Hitler randomly during such a speech. Judging by other polls on this website, Manifold skews heavily left-leaning, and the fact that still a decent majority don't buy the (frankly, absurd) idea that this happened essentially proves that if dealing with an ideologically balanced population, the consensus would be overwhelming
@PeterNjeim
This comment thread pretty easily convinced me that it was indeed intentional:
https://manifold.markets/Alfie/did-elon-musk-intentionally-do-a-na#zp9ckybzdu
@Gameknight that's the very poll I'm referring to, showing a majority agreeing that it isn't intentional. There's another poll about which party Manifolders affiliate with and it's overwhelmingly not Republican. These two facts in tandem mean a consensus is that there was no random praise of Hitler in a speech about efficient government, Mars, and his heart.
I'm not sure why you're referencing the comment section, as the poll is far more important and clearly shows the comments aren't convincing. If you want me to comment about its comment section, what I can say is that Shai does a good job of debunking the snark from those who are doing mental gymnastics to pretend an utterly absurd thing is true
EDIT: Market creator @AbuElBanat blocked me 2 days after this comment was written, despite me clicking like on his comment, proving he is acting in bad faith, and preventing me from adding new replies.
Reply to @LucaMasters (reply below this comment (sent to his DM as well)):
For some reason, the creator of that market blocked me days after I made my comments, so I can't reply to you there.
Anyways, you didn't read what I said closely. I didn't say an 8-point lead indicated a consensus. I said the combination of the fact that most Manifolders are of a different political stripe than Musk, coupled with the 8-point lead by Manifolders, equates to a genuine consensus (among the general population). What I said: "These two facts in tandem mean a consensus".
What poll was I referencing? This one here, showing 62% of Manifolders being Democrat-leaning, and only 16% being Republican-leaning. Weighting by party, that 8-point lead widens to a consensus, in my opinion.
If you would be so kind to relay this message in the market's comments that'd be great as I can't do so myself, thanks and take care
@PeterNjeim 54% is not great evidence for "consensus". I agree it wasn't intended as a Nazi salute, but there's nothing even close to a consensus on that point.
@LucaMasters The widespread controvery is enough for this market. Even if it's not an exact consensus, the fact that almost 50% say YES is enough for the market.