What if every hamas top member already has a replacement to takeover in case they die? In that case how will you define win? Honestly the best case for this market would be if you say that if Wikipedia says so that Hamas has been defeated then this market will resolve

Exactly, and the IDF is well aware of that: "Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a political party. It is rooted in the hearts of people - whoever thinks we can eliminate Hamas is mistaken.” (IDF Spokesman, Brig Gen Daniel Hagari)

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-19/ty-article/netanyahu-says-army-obligated-to-goals-set-by-govt-after-idf-doubts-hamas-destruction/00000190-316e-d340-a1f8-396e91ac0000?utm_source=App_Share&utm_medium=iOS_Native

If several key memebers of Hamas leave Gaza would that make it a loss for Israel

@Ra13zRS40M I'd call that a win as Gaza will be terrorist free...

How do you define "win"?

@Weezing Israel completely destroying Hamas...

@AitchKay Like eliminating all known members? Including those that are not in Gaza? Please update the description with the specifics what has to happen for it to be resolved yes.

@Weezing Yes, eliminating all known members within Gaza. Including those outside of Gaza would be almost impossible (imho!) and is worthy of a separate question.

@AitchKay I don’t think eliminate key members of Hamas will eliminate Hamas.

New members will grew up in two years, like sinware..how grew up while he was prisoner in Israel.

I think you should define a win in a different way, if I would know what a win will be, I will already post a question…

Maybe 85% of Israeli refugees going back to their homes close to the borders? 90% of hostages coming back? Both? This might be a more reasonable “win”

@BP17b6 True, sadly the terrorism cycle is unlikely to end... however for the sake of resolution of this market, maybe leaving it up to Israel announcing that they have won, would be better?

@AitchKay Both sides can claim they own in the end…

Both sides needs a “victory picture “ even if it is empty from meaning.

I would prefer to have a clear goal as I suggested… or what will be a win in your eyes.

@BP17b6 Yes both sides often do claim victory lol - in this case however, I think we can discount anything Hamas says as they are clearly overpowered by the Israeli military...

@AitchKay I won’t be so sure, especially with this government in Israel, that cannot afford it self any lose…. The pairs in them is the lowest in all times.

That is why I prefer a clear criteria that is not any bias declaration.

@AitchKay So will this question resolve yes if there are no Hamas members in Gaza or if Israel claims victory?