When will a large-scale geoengineering intervention cause an international dispute?
Plus
10
Ṁ377Nov 23
79%
2040
76%
2060
56%
2035
50%
2045
50%
2050
50%
2055
47%
2030
17%
2025
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@AllisonDuettmann How will these resolve? Are they each indpendent, so that you might have some early ones resolve Yes while later ones resolve No if there aren't any further disputes?
Related questions
Related questions
Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
59% chance
Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?
28% chance
Will 2024 be the first year that we start large scale Geoengineering?
10% chance
Will a large-scale solar geoengineering project be implemented by 2035?
35% chance
Will we deploy large geoengineering efforts to thwart a runaway global warming before 2030?
20% chance
Will a major geoengineering project be approved and implemented before 2025?
11% chance
In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
11% chance
Will there be large-scale protests against geoengineering before 2025?
4% chance
What will be true about the effect of geoengineering on the planet by 2026? (Add your own answer)
If solar geoengineering becomes a major issue in US politics, which party will support it?