Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?
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24
Ṁ1263
2040
68%
chance

A person will count as Asian if they are at least 50% racially Asian.

This includes a person with heritage from Anatolia or the Arabian Peninsula.

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Jews wouldn't count? Even though Ashkenazi Jews trace about half their ancestry to Southwest Asia?

Steve Jobs would count? He is half-Syrian. Justin Amash would count? Ralph Nader would count?

Egyptians of course would not count.

Not the way "Asian" is typically used in the US as a racial category.

@nathanwei Hmm... thanks for pointing this out. I didn't think that hard about this. Should I have used another definition of Asian? Probably. But I don't want to change the criteria again unless I really have to.

So let's see. Steve Jobs and the others would probably count (I'd have to check their grandparents to be sure). Egyptians wouldn't count, unless they're from the Arabian part of Egypt. Most Jews wouldn't count.

Are you counting Harris in this? Idk what percentage she’s considered Asian.

Her mom is Indian. Most Indians are close to 100% Indian. Half of that plus her father is about 50% Indian. Unless news comes out that her mom had a white grandfather or something, she will count for this.

Just to be clear: we're including Anatolia and the Arabian Peninsula here? So an Arab or Turk president would be Asian too?

@tfae I'm open to not including them if there's a good reason...? Otherwise yes.

@AmitAmin I would say they should be included.

predicts NO

@yetimaster I've updated the description to mark that those areas are included.