Will India be the superpower till 2035?
Basic
6
Ṁ205
2035
20%
chance

Resolve YES if India is the first in the 2035 version of this list https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries
Resolve NO if below 3rd
N/A otherwise

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@AmitKumarMishra Resolution criteria? What does the "till" actually mean?

@JaromirSvoboda powerful military, huge economy, and leading role in international institutions as a developed country. I guess these things would be clearly visible when done. I am new to markets I hope there isn't any confusion.

@AmitKumarMishra Unfortunately, that's not precise enough. Arguably India is a superpower even now (see https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-superpowers) or it is not (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower).

IMHO the best approach would be to link some list of countries (wiki or something like this https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/military-capability/) that takes into account all your criteria and let the resolution criteria be for example: "India is the third or higher on this list".

predicts YES

@JaromirSvoboda By "the superpower" I meant it to be at the top.

Economically as a nation it's certainly quite higher but I guess things matter more on a nominal or per capita basis.

@AmitKumarMishra Still not clear enough for my taste, please include one precise criterion t in the description. For example "India is the first in the 2035 version of this list https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries"

It is generally discouraged to bet on your own markets, it makes you biased. If you still do it, you need to be even more rigorous in setting the resolution criteria.

@JaromirSvoboda Acknowledged

@AmitKumarMishra Nice. And sorry to bet against you 😁.

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