When will the US have the first female President?
Basic
40
Ṁ38562032
10%
Before the end of 2024
53%
Before the end of 2025
53%
Before the end of 2026
53%
Before the end of 2027
53%
Before the end of 2028
68%
Before the end of 2029
68%
Before the end of 2030
68%
Before the end of 2031
76%
Before the end of 2032
91%
Before the end of 2036
91%
Before the end of 2040
91%
Before the end of 2044
91%
Before the end of 2048
91%
Before the end of 2052
55%
Before Joe Biden pass away
59%
Before Donald Trump pass away
87%
Before human land on mars
69%
Before human set foot on moon again
98.3%
Before the U.S. government collapses
99.7%
Before the U.S. has the second female president
Resolves Yes if a female president was elected or a female vice president became president due to the current president unable to perform his duty.
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@AmmonLam This was at 36% but the description says “Resolves Yes if a female president was elected”. 36 is somewhat in between the chance of Kamala replacing Biden by EOY (<10%) and being elected this year and sworn in next year (~50%). I bet it up, but clarification would be helpful.
Before the U.S. has the second female president
@Bayesian The description says "elected" but that always happens on a separate year than the swearing in and actually becoming president. Wondering for the year specified if we are counting elected without having been sworn in yet.
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