[Daily Streak Ironman] Which candidate would last the longest? [40000 Mana prize]
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Jan 1
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Join the first Manifold daily login Ironman competition!

Rules:

  • Stay in the competition by trading on your own answer once a day.

  • Any competitor who fails to place a bet for 36 consecutive hours is eliminated from the game. Bot bets and bets placed with an API do not count.

  • I will occasionally request a required bet amount (1-3 Mana) to prevent competitors from using bot bets. (all candidates will be pinged, so you wont miss the announcement when you place a bet)

The person who manages to stay in the game the longest wins the 30000 Mana prize. The second-place winner receives a 7000 Mana consolation prize, and the third-place winner receives a 3000 Mana consolation prize.


Note: It is totally fine for a candidate to bet 1 mana and then sell the shares immediately, that would count as the daily trade.

Note: The elimination rule remains even if there is an outage on Manifold. Contestants are responsible for figuring out how to bet ASAP after an outage. If Manifold goes on a 36 consecutive hour outage and all contestants are eliminated due to the outage, the contestant with the latest bet are eliminated last therefore wins the game.

The Ironman officially started on Monday Mar 4th, 2024

Edit: total prize pool adjusted to 40000 Mana in response to the pivot devaluing Mana. I cannot foresee all the possible changes to mana to USD conversion rate in the future, in any case the prize will correspond to 40USD of value.

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bought Ṁ75 @jim YES

Good luck

bought Ṁ45 @snazzlePop YES

Got up on Mt. Hood’s east-northeastern aspect today. Shown is the Eliot glacier.

Driving up to Leavenworth, WA today to do a single-day traverse across ‘The Enchantments’ tomorrow. I intend to be laying in my bivy by 2000 PT tonight as to have another “Alpine Start” (i.e. wake @ 0300 & hiking [hopefully] by 0400). Per my cell provider’s coverage map, I am unlikely to have service outside of Leavenworth.

I intend to post some pics below after the hike.

In the meantime, this could be when I lose my Ironman streak, if I forget to make some bets among today’s logistical preparations or tomorrow’s/Saturday’s presumably forthcoming fatigue.

[Tagging @Predictor in case you wish to place any wagers accordingly.]

It’s such an epic hike with a staggering amount of splendor:

Can we get an update on status here? Are all participants committed? State exactly how committed you are so I can wager accordingly.

@Predictor sure, I guess I’m committed. 🤷(Unless or until mountains get in the way.)

I do a lot of backpacking and wilderness camping. I’ve been fortunate to be able to connect to cell signal while in the backcountry on several occasions now. Tbh, I’m surprised I’ve lasted this long.

On the other hand, at one time I had something like a 900+ day streak on Duolingo (although I used streak freezes when away from cell service).

@Predictor Betting on this market is just a habit for me, so I wouldn't exactly say I'm committed. However, I also don't see myself losing modulo server outages (where I'm at a disadvantage because I only bet once daily)

@Predictor im totally uncommitted

Will Ammon ever "request a required bet amount (1-3 Mana)"

@nikki Will he?

sold Ṁ0 @snazzlePop YES

Summited South Sister this morning. Shown are the Middle & North Sisters.

@firstuserhere would be proud

The flights climbed is inaccurate — I climbed over 5000 vertical feet to get to the summit at ~10,300’.

I climbed another mountain yesterday: Mt. Hood in Oregon. I didn’t summit (it’s far too late in the season), but I did summit back in May (although I didn’t take any summit pics then).

Both climbs were in one day, and I had cell service at higher altitudes.

still going strong!

Can a competitor entrust the trading to a descendant, or does their death necessarily mean losing?

All that is required is a bet placed with the competitor’s account. If the account is transferred temporarily or permanently to another person, they can certain continue to stay in the competition by betting once a day

I was just worried because some of my competitors climb mountains and I can hardly climb stairs, so it's likely I can't outlive them. With this rule clarification, however, I'm confident my dynasty will outlive theirs and win the game!

I’m child-free and sterilized. You and your progeny got this.

at some point we'll upload ourselves and become emulated minds on a computer

Yes, I deliberately used the word descendant instead of child to encompass branched off selves

bought Ṁ1 @snazzlePop YES

@jim @koadma

Bot bets and bets placed with an API do not count.

bought Ṁ1 @jim YES

@snazzlePop we need an official ruling from @AmmonLam ... do bets from emulated consciousnesses count?

@jim I'm confused why couldn't an emulated consciousness use the browser version instead of the API? That said, I do think we should disqualify ems using too little computation as they are not that different from a simple python script which wouldn't be in the spirit of the competition imo.

EDIT: oh I see. You mean bot=em, that will probably be offensive in the future lol

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