To his Montana U.S. Senate seat.
Now Likely R (81%) in the DDHQ forecast https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/senate/montana/
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/24/jon-tester-biden-democrats
As one would expect for a state as red as Montana, Tester is trying to distance himself from Biden.
The poll from J.L. Partners, provided exclusively to the Montana State News Bureau, shows Sheehy leading Tester within the margin of error, by 48% to 45% with 7% of those polled undecided.
@SemioticRivalry I find it interesting that the Democrats are much more concerned about "threats to democracy", and the Republicans are much more concerned about "election integrity". To me they're almost synonymous.
@Joshua my math says that the environment would have to be ~D+10 for this race to be a tossup. we'll see if i'm an idiot
@SemioticRivalry Is your math based purely on the Presidential election, or does it incorporate other factors?
@houstonEuler i'd rather not go into too much detail to my main counterparty, but i'll just say that it's a very simple method but isn't super well known.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 there are about ten simultaneous mana fights happening across the site right now hahahah
Like this one: