Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?
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11
Ṁ3362030
77%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if after the 2030 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
Resolves N/A if these elections do not take place.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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