Inspired by https://manifold.markets/AaronKaufman/will-any-fdaapproved-glp1-agonists and will use the same criteria:
GLP-1 agonists, such as semaglutide (ozempic/wegovy), tirzepatide (mounjaro), and dulaglutide (Trulicity), are becoming popular for weight loss and Type-2 diabetes treatment.
This market resolves positively if any approved GLP-1 agonists for either T2D or weight loss are withdrawn from the market due to safety reasons by the listed date. This applies either if the FDA mandates it or if the company withdraws the drug voluntarily.
1,000
3.00https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/pds.2155
This paper is a bit old, but the base rate of FDA drug withdrawals from 1980 to 2009 is 15.9%. Less than a quarter of these are for safety reasons (so 3.5% of approvals).
Also, from a different paper (Craveiro 2020) average time to withdrawal for North American drugs is 17.5 years [0-24].
And e.g. Ozempic was approved in December 2017, so they'd only have 12 years 1 month to go withdraw it (which is only enough time for like, half the probably mass for the time distribution)
So the outside view says something like half of 3.5% of approved drugs are withdrawn for safety reasons within 12 years 1 month.
Black box warnings and poat-approval labelling changes on the other hand...