Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis
Basic
3
Ṁ452030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
Trump wins: Constitutional Crisis
30%
Trump loses: Constitutional Crisis
Trump winning the election will be determined by the outcome of this market:
https://www.manifoldpolitics.com/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Constitutional crisis will be determined by the outcome of this market:
https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-the-united-states-experience-a?r=QW5zZWw
If Trump wins, 2. Resolves N/A
If Trump does not win, 1. Resolves N/A
The remaining option then resolves as per the Constitutional Crisis market.
Edit: The “Trump Loses” option includes all scenarios where he is not duly elected president, such as not being on the ballot
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on Biden dropping out, will Trump be elected president?
48% chance
Conditional on Donald Trump being indicted before the 2024 presidential election, will he win said election?
46% chance
Will Trump Win 2024 Election AND [Major Market] Resolve YES?
Conditional on Trump serving time in 2024, who will win the presidential election?
What markets will resolve Yes if Trump Elected, but No if anyone else is elected? [Free Response Correlation Market]
Conditional on Donald Trump dropping out or dying, who will win the 2024 US presidential election?
Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
75% chance
What 2024 markets will resolve in the same direction as Trump winning the election? [Free Response Correlation Market]
Which consequences will Donald Trump face?
Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?