Will I have a job, a driver's license, and my own place by May 2025?
44
1kṀ18k
May 2
1.3%
chance
14

I'm on a journey of self-actualization! I've been coasting for the last two years, and I'm unhappy with the result. I intend to turn things around, and I want my own income, mobility, and living space. Resolves YES if on May 1, 2025, I have full-time employment¹, a driver's license, and a place where I pay rent. Resolves NO if any one of those is missing.

  • ¹ Update 2025-09-01 (PST): - Full-time employment is clarified to a reliable income stream, driven by my own efforts, large enough to support my desired standard of living (e.g., starting a company). (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-04-25 (PST): - Driver's license must be issued in the creator’s name; using someone else’s license does not count. (AI summary of creator comment)

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So, this will almost certainly resolve NO.

  • My brother is delayed coming back from a road trip, and he has the car I was going to use for my driving test, which also has my learner's permit in it, so I'll be rescheduling the test again.

  • I got a paid work trial I'm very excited about!! But it's next month, and doesn't hit the "reliable" criterion regardless

I'll go down with the ship and take the loss of my bets on this market 🫡 to the fastest goes the alpha

@AriZerner

Added another 100 because I believe in you

@AriZerner congrats on making some progress. Are you gonna do a new market for the next few months again?

@AriZerner congrats on the progress!!!

filled a Ṁ3,000 NO at 1.0% order

@AriZerner just clarifying because I realized the possibility: getting “a driver’s license” has to be in your name, right? Otherwise I have some reconsidering to do

@GleamingRhino yeah lol, taking someone else's license doesn't count

@OP not currently planning to, might change my mind

@GleamingRhino incredible idea though lmfao

bought Ṁ50 YES

I believe in you buddy

any progress on any of these things?

@shankypanky narrowly failed my first driving test (proctor said I was doing great except that I made one disqualifying mistake towards the end), retry scheduled for April 7. Some leads for work, but hard to tell how confident to be there. I expect rent to follow quickly after income, but it might come down to the wire depending on how work leads to.

@AriZerner lmk if I can help at all on the work hunting front (market or no market, happy to help out if I can)

@shankypanky thank you! Do you know of any opportunities for software engineers, especially where you could make an intro? I'm especially interested in working with LLMs, but I'm not super picky at this point. If you have the time and inclination, you can read a bunch of words about my ideal job and my strengths here: https://arizerner.com/posts/my-career-values/

@AriZerner oh nice I'll have a look a bit later this morning, and I'll think about who I might be able to connect you with or suggest. I'm not in the Bay Area these days but I don't think it matters. x

@AriZerner how was the retake

@GleamingRhino I extended a trip I took to the east coast, so I rescheduled the retake for April 29th. Really coming down to the wire lol

@AriZerner you have a job and your own place, then?

@shankypanky no, although I did do a final interview round last week that I'm pretty optimistic about, and if I get the job I plan to quickly arrange short-term housing nearby, so it's still possible this will resolve YES. That said, with the conjunction of all three, I do think 36% is probably too high (but I don't want to bet against my success, feel free to grab the alpha)

Do you have any of these now?

filled a Ṁ100 NO at 40% order

@AriZerner drivers license is easy, report back tomorrow with progress made

filled a Ṁ100 NO at 36% order

@AriZerner I'm an idiot and thought this resolved March. Keeping my mana here for you to take

If you don't mind me asking. feel free to say no to answering these! how old are you? What country do you live in? What does "coasting" mean? have you ever had any of these things before (full time employment? a driver's license, and a place where you pay your own rent)?

@No_uh I'm 27. I live in the US, having moved back recently after living in Mexico for about 4 years. By coasting I mean having a good time, keeping my home nice, traveling, maintaining social relationships, but not meaningfully producing anything external or building human capital. I worked as a full-time SWE for three years before getting laid off two years ago. I had my own apartment from September 2022-September 2024 and spent most of my nights in hostels for a few years before that. I've never had a driver's license, that'll be new for me.

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