If there is an assassination attempt on Biden in 2024, will the perpetrator be a Democrat?
Plus
11
Ṁ571Dec 31
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves:
1. N/A if there is no assassination attempt on Joe Biden, the current president of the US
2. YES if at least one perpetrator is a registered Democrat
3. YES if there is unambiguously a consensus that at least one perpetrator was, in some meaningful sense, a supporter of Democrats and it seems to be aligned with the spirit of the question to resolve it YES
4. NO if no perpetrator is a registered Democrat and the criteria for resolution 3 are not met
5. If none of the above criteria are met or if it is not clear if any of them are met, the question resolves according to the spirit of the question if unambiguously possible, otherwise N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an assassination attempt on Joe Biden before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Conditional on a Democrat winning in 2024, will Republicans attempt a coup?
18% chance
Will an assassination attempt be made on Jill Biden in 2024?
3% chance
If Harris wins the 2024 election, will there be another attempted/successful attack on the capitol before July 1, 2025?
36% chance
Conditional on Biden being elected president in 2024, will a Democrat also be elected in 2028?
54% chance
Conditional on Trump winning the presidency in 2024, will he be assassinated in office?
16% chance
Conditional on a Democrat winning the U.S. Presidency in 2024, will I think that some Republicans or Republican supporters attempted to use violence to install a different President before the first 3 months of the new administration?
68% chance
Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will I (Olivia) think some subset of republicans attempted a coup before the first 3 months of the new administration?
39% chance