Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
56
1.3kṀ52192030
39%
Clarence Thomas
8%
Sonya Sotomayor
0.9%
Amy Coney Barrett
1.4%
Elena Kagan
2%
Brett Kavanaugh
7%
John Roberts
38%
Samuel Alito
2%
Neil Gorsuch
0.6%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
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I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
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