Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?
Plus
50
Ṁ38602030
62%
Clarence Thomas
13%
Sonya Sotomayor
0.8%
Amy Coney Barrett
2%
Elena Kagan
0.5%
Brett Kavanaugh
7%
John Roberts
14%
Samuel Alito
0.3%
Neil Gorsuch
0.2%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Yeah, same here
@mods, it glitches out whenever you try to bet on a 0% option here
bought Ṁ50 Clarence Thomas YES
@PaintspotInfez It seems to be working for me. I was able to bet Yes on every option.
I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr
@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme
Related questions
Related questions
Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
Will a US Supreme Court justice retire in 2024?
5% chance
Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
91% chance
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?
Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2025?
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
66% chance
Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?