* In this market I will compare GPT-5 with Grok-2 OR any subsequent version of xAI Grok if it's released before GPT-5.

It seems that people expect GPT-5 to be able to write funny original jokes:

Will Grok be able to compete in humour? I expect GPT-5 to be smarter than Grok-2+, but Grok will likely have a couple of potential strengths:
1. Dedicated fun mode
2. Fewer guardrails, more unhinged

When I have access to both models, I will do the following:

1. Close this market.
2. Ask the models to write an original joke 5 times (or as many times as needed to get 5 actually original jokes).
3. Run a blind poll on Manifold to determine jokes of which model are funnier ("Here are 5 jokes from model A, 5 jokes from model B, which do you like more").
4. Poll results resolve this market accordingly.

I'll post screenshots (or links to chat logs if available) for the resolution.

If either of the models isn't available before the end of this year, the market resolves N/A. If both are available, but I don't have the access, I'll extend the closing date.

I won't bet in this market.