Manifold Matchups: Which side would win in a fight?
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Plus
38
Ṁ9252
Nov 17
50%
Andrew Tate (NO) -VS- Giacomo Casanova (YES) [seduction contest]
52%
Rick Sanchez (NO) -VS- One Punch Man (YES)

Each answer is a fight. By default, the fight is physical (first to knockout/defeat/kill the other person). However, you can specify a different kind of battle if you wish.

For each answer, each user can bet NO shares to state the belief that the first person would win the fight, and YES to state the belief that the second person would win the fight. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so owning more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Every week, the market will close.

If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

If it's very close, and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as the market is worth running.


It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding positions are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

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Manifold (NO) -VS- Polymarket (YES)

Seems they are about evenly matched

https://calibration.city

Suggestion: Eminem + Snoop Dogg vs Nice Peter + Epic Lloyd [rap battle]

Andrew Tate (NO) -VS- Giacomo Casanova (YES) [seduction contest]

@Slackhammer is this how many people can they seduce in one night? If it's about seducing each other then it would be unclear who has won

Yeah, it's a contest of who's a better pickup artist. I guess one night oughtta do.

Thanks, also what's the setting? Is it 1700s Paris, 2010s San Francisco, 2024 NYC etc? In 2024 presumably Tate would have the massive nerf of everyone knowing he's a sexual predator lol

lol i missed this one, good idea

Rick Sanchez (NO) -VS- One Punch Man (YES)

As far as I'm concerned OPM doesn't stand a chance. Rick just teleports him in some other dimension and One Punch Man can't punch anything

bought Ṁ50 Rick Sanchez (NO) -V... NO

Exactly what I'm thinking. But he already farted once himself out of vacuum, so it's not that easy :|

Any matchups yall wanna see? unless I might resolve these and close this

Rick Sanchez vs One Punch Man

Manifold vs Polymarket (but I can't name kind of fight)

Added

100 chicken sized horses vs 1 horse sized chicken

Suggestion: one blooslusted gorilla vs the 100 most active users on r/whowouldwin unarmed

Good idea, generally group fights have good opportunities

bought Ṁ10 Rick Sanchez (NO) -V... NO

Keynesian gladiatorial combat go brrrrrrrrrr

Dumbledore (NO) -VS- Gandalf (YES)
bought Ṁ5 Dumbledore (NO) -VS-... YES

Reminded me about an article saying that Gandalf might be much more powerful, claiming that Dumbledore's upper bound on power level was established in his duels and Gandalf's power is unknown...

Gandalf is an immortal supernatural being who took temporary mortal form. Seems like a no brainer!

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