Manifold’s High Net Worth Individuals - How high will networths get in 2024?
Basic
15
Ṁ5986
Jan 1
99%
7,000,000M
72%
8,000,000M
55%
9,000,000M
39%
10,000,000M
28%
12,500,000M
27%
15,000,000M
23%
20,000,000M
20%
25,000,000M
9%
30,000,000M
8%
40,000,000M
6%
50,000,000M
6%
75,000,000M
6%
100,000,000M
5%
125,000,000M
5%
150,000,000M
5%
175,000,000M
3%
200,000,000M
3%
250,000,000M
1.6%
300,000,000M
2%
400,000,000M

Only user accounts count for this count. See the networth value on the profile. If new currencies get introduced, they will count if they can ~instantly be transformed into mana.

Options resolve when they are hit. Temporary bugs do not count. All remaining options resolve NO at the end of the year.

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7,000,000M
bought Ṁ73 7,000,000M YES

I just realized this is asking about mana I guess, but if people buy with money they ll be buying sweepstakes right? Hmm which presumably goes against the spirit? What are yalls thoughts

@Bayesian I think if people spend money they get both mana and Sweepcash, right?

And Sweepcash can eventually be redeemed for 1S = 100 mana, so I think you can count both.

@Bayesian As far as I understand, you actually buy Mana (ratio USD 1 : M$ 100) and the sweepstakes are just a bonus ("officia"). This way you buy into a funconomy and it isn't real money betting, because the Sweepstakes are just a gift.

@Lion hahaha right yeah a gift..

bought Ṁ1 30,000,000M YES

Do staff accounts count? They get paid 10 million mana in bonus or something

@nikki Good question. Hmmm

@Bayesian I guess my thought on it is that if it’s just a loophole for donations to manifund which is separate from manifold, it doesn’t count, like it was the case for ninthcause. If they’re actually holding the mana to spend it on manifold prediction markets then it counts bc they‘re foregoing the mana ‘going to anything else’, so they are buying it in an analogous way to any other user? That seems most fair to me, open to disagreement

opened a Ṁ1,000 Answer #3hq537dri7 NO at 4% order

@Bayesian @Lion I put up some NO limit orders on 300-900 million mana.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ypjxllyo3k YES

Filled some of it, if Bayesian wasn't interested, I would fill the rest as well

Take it lion :p

sold Ṁ2 8,000,000M NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Congrats, 🥳, with the increased price it's very unlikely 😭 I don't believe that anyone pumps millions of USD in Manifold in the first year.

bought Ṁ1 Answer #o0xmt7lhka YES

If the pivot works and Mana continues to exist, not reaching 100 million (equivalent to USD 100k) would be a huge fail. (Just compare it to Polymarket.) These are two big if's, but it should be above 10%. Happy to put up limit orders if anyone is interested.

Agreed and likewise

bought Ṁ1 300,000,000M YES

I’ll buy 300 mil at 8% if there’s any takers

I got you if someone will sell me 175 mil at 8% 😄

boughtṀ520,000,000M NO
reposted

Do you wanna make a bigger bet at 37%?

bought Ṁ79 Answer #x44w139l6b YES

I think Jackson is >5M atm so first few can resolve

bought Ṁ2 9,000,000M YES

Tyty

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