https://www.thedailybeast.com/hillary-clinton-says-useful-idiot-tucker-carlson-could-end-up-with-russian-tv-show
Since some tucker carlson X show clips have been posted on a russian tv channel, and Tucker and his team currently deny involvement, I've clarified the resolution criteria for this unfortunate edge case:
1) If it turns out Tucker actually consented to the show, or if he retroactively consents to it, before the end of 2024, the market resolves YES. Same for any other russian tucker shows he consents to, by the end of the year.
2) If Tucker continues to deny involvement or consentment to any and all russian tv shows until the end of the year, and there is no indication that he is lying (like a tv show continuing to display his shows in russian without legal liability), the market resolves NO.
3) If it seems in my or moderators' opinions clear that he is probably lying about a lack of consent/involvement, it may resolve to some probability relative to our subjective belief in his lies. For example, if it seems likely that he actually consents without publicly doing so, the market may resolve to 50%; If there is no indication of it, even if it is plausible, it will still resolve NO.
Related questions
No, Tucker Carlson didn't launch a new show on Russian TV. Clips used without OK | Fact check
not looking good for us Yes holders at the mo. I wonder if there are any legal implications for any reason if he admit he supports or allows them to air the show? I still get the feeling that "this is done without legal permission" is lip service from his team, but I'm also not sure whether anything would be worse or challenging for him if he admitted he was good with it... probably more risk to public opinion than anything if he did. though when he was on Lex's podcast after the Putin interview aired, he wasn't exactly singing any praises.
thinking out loud I guess - but I just spotted this article
@Bayesian Several reports. He discussed Lyme disease apparently
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/33060
It’s not possible to prove the negative that he didn’t consent. It’s not like sending Russian TV a cease-and-desist letter would be a credible threat. I don’t imagine The Hague would step in here.
@Bayesian give it a little time? I wouldn't be surprised if other things come out where he gives an indication he supports it, particularly if the show gets pretty popular over there.
@Bayesian I think it should resolve yes, it aired, too bad for him if he didn’t get paid, which we can’t determine anyway. Russia TV doesn’t need to respect copyrights. That’s all I’ve got.
@ClubmasterTransparent I think if we knew for sure he didn't consent it would obviously not count? That would not be him starting a tv show, it would be people stealing his show. seems like the difficulty is in dealing with the fact that we don't know for sure either way
@Bayesian yeah I think the question "will he start a TV show" implies that he has some say in it. it's an edge case that it's not the establishment of a brand new show but personally, were it my market, I would resolve it yes if it came to a point that he was in some way consenting to it being shown there (I don't think it's necessary for him to be paid for it, personally, as long as he okays it). unsure whether he'll do or say something that implies consent, but it does make sense that any initial response was "what? what do you mean?" particularly since everyone was nudging him about his little tourism videos while he was over there lol
@shankypanky I agree, if he gives his consent on it it would resolve YES. To the news, atm, he's saying
> Carlson, in a separate text message to Mediate, blasted the initial Newsweek report, writing “this is completely absurd. Reporters are so dishonest and stupid. I’ve never even heard of this channel.”
which, I get he might be lying ig.. if it's true though it would resolve NO I think
@Bayesian well, if at the time he'd never heard of it but once he caught wind of it, he/his people made contact with the network, spoke with them about it, and then said "sure, that's fine, keep going" that would maybe be a yes? it's funny that such a small and seemingly simple question/market has gotten complicated somehow lol
My guess is that particular news network stops displaying tucker stuff whatsoever. also I just remembered, even if this didn't count, the market's gotta stay open til the end of the year just in case. so yeah hmm i could reopen it it seems like i've clarified enough? essentially:
1. if he confirms his consent, retroactive or otherwise, market resolves YES
2. if he continues denying it, and the tv show stops showing his stuff, and he doesn't start some other russian tv show that is not that one, by eoy, resolves NO
3. if he stops commenting on it, and the tv show continues airing his stuff, I will be increasingly suspicious that he is obviously lying, in which case I am again undecided on YES or NO, but I hope it doesn't come to that. I could precommit that a suspicious but uncertain outcome would resolve to 50%, idk.
4. I can create another market predicting this shit but i would probably close it before news is likely to come bc saving subsidy
@Bayesian yeah all of that totally makes sense. tbh I have a regretful Who Will Be On Tucker's Show market so I get notifications when he posts episodes - I'm not going to turn any more attention to him than I already do, but I'll likely notice if there's suddenly some topic about the show in Russia for some reason, and I'll drop a note here. but your clarifications make sense! maybe quote-text them in the market description? (up to you ofc)
@Bayesian haha it was a combination of being fairly new to Manifold and sitting solo in an airport on Christmas night waiting for a red eye and thinking it would be an easy and interesting thing to speculate on for 2024 - but he gets some really obscure people on there talking about very niche things lmao backfired
@shankypanky tbh it's fair game to close or partial resolve markets that are too time consuming, or maybe ownership can be passed soon idk, I don't think anyone would fault you for it, or ig the ones that would are wrong to do that
@Bayesian nah it doesn't take much time - I only go check if there's someone whose name I recognise that pops up in my notifs about his show, but it's not terribly active as a market so all good for now (hope I don't jynx myself)