Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?
Standard
1
Ṁ50
Oct 11
48%
chance

Will the 12 month average, seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) go above 3% (YES) before the unemployment rate goes below 4% (NO)?

In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?

Unemployment as of Oct 4 was 4.1%. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.

Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released every month. CPI as of September was 2.5%. Trend over time data here. Next release date is Oct 10.

I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.

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