Resolves NO if Ukraine or NATO do not exist by then. Only full membership counts, no "partnerships" or similar.
@twink_joan_didion if one part calls itself Ukraine and the other part does not (and by extension the 'Ukraine' part takes on the international rights and obligations of the current Ukrainian state), then it would be fair to say to say it still exists, even if its territory is substantially reduced
@mariopasquato PRC didn't assume the obligations of ROC, and both sides claimed to be 'the real China'. It's definitely the case that countries can divide in ways that would be messy for Manifold questions, but equally, there can be simpler splits that allow continuation
@mariopasquato In case of breakup, whichever the United States recognizes as the legitimate successor of Ukraine counts.