"Gets negative news coverage" means at least one major news outlet writes an article whose coverage of Manifold is primarily negative. Manifold does not have to be the main topic of the article, but it should be a large part of the article.
(For example: "prediction markets are terrible, here are three examples" counts; "Ammon Lam, also known for participating on the controversial Manifold Markets website, today rescued three puppies from a burning building" does not.)
"A large number of new users" means I look at the "daily active users 7 day average" data here
https://manifold.markets/stats
and I see an obvious large increase right after the news broke. Looking at the graph now, the increases after Dec. 8 and Dec. 29 are right on the edge: I would not count either of them as an "obvious large increase", but anything larger would count. (The larger of the two is about a 25% increase over 7 days. For comparison, the Destiny influx is a close to 5x increase over 9 days. So, let's say if the media reporting is followed by an increase of more than 25% I will probably resolve YES.)
Related market, with some speculation on how negative news coverage might come to Manifold:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-market-be-reported-in
Close date updated to 2027-01-20 5:59 pm
1,000
3.00Sorry for being unclear, @Boklam I meant as a criterion to define what a major news outlet is. So what I mean is "if the news outlet has a Wikipedia page, it can be considered major and applicable for resolution". Just to have a clear cutoff.
@HenriThunberg Ah, I understand what you're saying.
And no. That cutoff is way too loose. For example, the Chattanooga Times Free Press
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chattanooga_Times_Free_Press
is not, in my opinion, a "major news outlet".
I think I mean something like: an outlet whose name is somewhat widely recognized across the English-speaking world. Obviously the big names (NYT WSJ Fox BBC) count. I would also count HuffPost, Vice, Infowars.
I don't thave a precise threshold for you. I think I mean "the sort of Manifolder who pays some attention to the news is familiar with it." Or maybe just, subjectively, "I'm familiar with it and consider it `major'".
@Boklam If Manifold somehow avoids negative news coverage I'll either extend the close date or resolve N/A.