Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? | Manifold

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

28

1kṀ12k

2043

31%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Details in this blog post. Barnett wins if:

By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

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1,000

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opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 1.0% order

@KevinFischer feel free to fill the YES limit orders I just placed

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 27% order

@Bayesian I'm here to help, but that's a lot of limit orders!

Worth noting that if Bryan loses, he will pay out 4 times what Matthew pays out if he loses, implying a probability of 20%.

Incidentally, the price is 15% at time of writing so @MatthewBarnett, if you want to bet more...

@BoltonBailey Not 25%?

@LightLawliet If I lose 4 dollars 20% of the time and win 1 dollar 80% of the time I break even.

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