Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Basic
10
Ṁ182
2027
79%
chance

Fields medalist Terence Tao has recently been interested in the Lean proof assistant. He recently started formalizing one of his papers in Lean.

This question is to forecast whether he will still be interested in Lean in a few years. It resolves YES if Tao publishes or preprints any paper with Lean source code in the text of the paper between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31.

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Ṁ1,000
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