By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess? | Manifold

By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

Plus

17

Ṁ1774

2049

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Currently most people would say they have a large amount of free will. Will there be enough studies and literature published by 2050 to reduce how scientifically literate people think about the degree of Free Will.

Examples: greater understanding of how environment, neurotransmitters, genetics and more influenced thinking and choices.

I'm not sure of a good quantitative way to measure the change. But it should be large enough that it's easy to agree by comparing common viewpoints across time.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The emergence of high-quality consumer AGI systems will totally change how the average person thinks about all of the usual "what makes us human" questions. Consciousness, free will, etc

How does this resolve if the consensus is that 'free will' isn't a particularly meaningful concept, and/or is conflating multiple concepts, or something along those lines?

predictedYES

@adele I guess it would depend on the context at the end date. N/A if it’s too murky. Whatever the underlying concepts, currently a lot of people talk about discipline, making choices, self-control, and seem to demonstrate a belief they can make conscious decisions.

Related questions

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?

After reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky, will I be <50% convinced of the existence of free will?

Will computers know our beliefs better than ourselves in 2030?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Related questions

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

After reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky, will I be <50% convinced of the existence of free will?

At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will computers know our beliefs better than ourselves in 2030?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules