If presidential candidates tweet the word "rationalussy", will they win?
Standard
39
Ṁ12kNov 6
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0%
Biden tweets rationalussy; Biden wins
0%
Biden tweets rationalussy; Biden loses
0.1%
Trump tweets rationalussy; Trump wins
0.3%
Trump tweets rationalussy; Trump loses
0.3%
Both tweet rationalussy; Biden wins
0%
Both tweet rationalussy; Trump wins
0%
Both tweet rationalussy; neither wins
1.3%
Neither tweets rationalussy; Biden wins
45%
Neither tweets rationalussy; Trump wins
53%
Neither tweets rationalussy; neither wins
This market exists to see whether tweeting "rationalussy" affects a candidates chances of victory. The first part of each options resolves based on whether Donald and/or Joe Biden write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" before Election Day. If only one of them tweets it, then it will resolve to one of the "Biden tweets rationalussy" or "Trump tweets rationalussy" options, depending on who tweets it.
The second part resolves according to who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This part is not conditional on either candidate winning their primary.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?
37% chance
Will Destiny say Rationalussy during 2024?
25% chance
Will rationalussy be a major topic in the 2024 presidential debates?
1% chance
Who will be the next Speaker of the Rationalussy?
Will there be an officially registered Rationalussy Party before the 2024 U.S. elections?
4% chance
Conditional on Biden winning in 2024, is LK-99 real if and only if Eliezer Yudkowsky tweets the word rationalussy?
4% chance
Will the left/right culture war come for rationalussy before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Elon Musk tweet “rationalussy” by end of 2024?
5% chance
Will two school age children become the nation’s foremost political thinkers in 2024 for their critique of rationalussy?
4% chance
Which of these people will say Rationalussy first?