Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Presidential Nomination
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
Michigan
DEM
47%
REP
53%
Wisconsin
DEM
45%
REP
55%
Pennsylvania
DEM
40%
REP
60%
Nevada
DEM
33%
REP
66%
Arizona
DEM
33%
REP
67%
Georgia
DEM
25%
REP
75%
What will happen if...
![Biden](/_next/image?url=%2Fpolitical-candidates%2Fbiden.png&w=96&q=75)
![Trump](/_next/image?url=%2Fpolitical-candidates%2Ftrump.png&w=96&q=75)
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?