This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
@Joshua The reason I bet yes on > 25 bps was cuz I think it does affect it, call me a conspiracy theorist but I'm rich! :)
The effect will be if it indeed juices the markets, employment etc.
Important to keep in mind that early voting is starting very soon and I don't know how quickly money moves from banks to businesses to employees to consumption
How will this market be resolved if elections are pushed to 2025 or beyond by executive order?
This is the new official presidential market, in a binary YES/NO format for convenience. You can of course arbitrage it with the previously largest presidential markets here:
@nikki @Sokkenmakers and anyone else curious why we are making a new one.
Binary is needed for more efficient liquidity (and due to some bugs with multi-choice fees) for our upcoming sweepstakes launch.
Also, we wanted a market with more clear resolution criteria that would allow it to resolve quickly after the initial results.
Ideally, we would have found a way to use the existing market/comments/trading etc but decided this would be easiest and be ready in time for sweepstakes launch.
@SirSalty The title directly contradicts the description. The title should be "Will a Republican win the 2024 election?
@nikki yeah agreed the title is slightly inaccurate, but they wanted that title for marketing reasons. That said, there are weird edge cases like if Trump switches parties that make it not 100% equivalent to "will a Republican win". (Although will a Republican win is certainly more accurate)
@ManifoldPolitics how can we arbitrage if Mana can no longer be donated to charity or converted into sweepcash? i.e. it seems like Mana is now officially worthless?
@IsaacCarruthers it's play money. It is worthless in terms of real money, its only worth is like points in a videogame (which many people in fact value quite highly!)
You can't truly arbitrage anymore between mana and other stuff.