If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
5
𝕊36
2025
61%
chance

Inflation data gathered from the bureau of labor statistics

The current inflation rate is 3.2% the FED has a goal of 2%. 2.5% is roughly in the middle of these two numbers, if Trump is elected will the FED reach that mark.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected.

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I think there are widespread expectations among experts that his plans would push it above 2.5%. The question is instead how much of his plans congress lets him get away with, and how much of his plans he actually intends to enact vs talking about theatrically to win the votes of the many people who believe whatever he says because they don't keep track of his actions. https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/economists-say-inflation-deficits-will-be-higher-under-trump-than-harris-0365588e

WASHINGTON—Most economists think inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration than under those proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal.

bought Ṁ6,000 YES from 70% to 80%
opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 75% order

Trump just announced that he would make tariffs on all imported goods at 20%, which would be very inflationary.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@JamesF can you clarify the exact measure (eg total or core cpi)?

Ezra Klein:

Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him

[The Ezra Klein Show] Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices! #theEzraKleinShow https://podcastaddict.com/the-ezra-klein-show/episode/178092115

Tariffs, deporting workers, lower interest rates and tax breaks all fuel inflation.

reposted

The CPI is up for March now at 3.5%

bought Ṁ10 NO

Tariffs and deportations are inflationary

@Parks Inflation didn’t increase above equilibrium after Trump’s 2018 tariffs

@thepurplebull markets can be highly nonlinear.

@Parks Tariffs do not matter that much, since China first exports to Mexico who then exports to us.

reposted

Adding 10,000 Mana Subsidy to this pair of markets! Currently they show Biden with a higher chance of keeping inflation down, is that accurate?

bought Ṁ125 YES

@ManifoldPolitics I’m betting on Manifold being biased against Trump

@AmmonLam I do not think the president matters that much, but a recession is quite likely this year and next year, which likely will lead to lower inflation.

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