If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.
I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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@ColinAitkena211 the argument I hear about this is that Trump is all talk and won't actually do these things
@ColinAitkena211 An argument is that one president, regardless of macro-economic competency, is too small to send the world's biggest economy into a recession.