If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?
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αΉ2612025
36%
chance
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If the National Bureau of Economic Analysis says that a recession started before election day 2024 and a Democrat wins the election, this market resolves to YES.
I'll wait until September 1st 2025 whether NBER calls a recession. Then I'll resolve to N/A.
I'll rely on whatever the consensus of news outlets calls the election for (AP, Fox News, CBS News, ABC News, and DecisionDeskHQ).
I may bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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