If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
2
𝕊172026
63%
chance
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1W
1M
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Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.
If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. If he is elected president, this market resolves YES if average gas prices stay under $4 a gallon between January 2025 and November 2026 and NO if they do not.
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Based on this market, I created this conditional market which separates out close elections so that the market becomes useful in determining causation rather than just correlation.
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