Will activities banned by the Antarctica Treaty take place before 2030?
Basic
8
Ṁ56
2030
47%
chance

The Antarctic treaty bans the following activities from taking place on the Antarctica:

  • Nuclear testing

  • Military operations

  • Economic exploitation

  • (New) territorial claims - except potential USA and Russia claims

This questions resolves Yes, if, before Jan 1st 2030, any of the listed activities are undertaken in Antactica.

The activity does not need to be officially claimed by the undertaking party - if a credible party, like another government exhibits proof of the activities in a public forum (UN, press conference, diplomatic statement, ...), or if credible journalistic reporting of one of those activities emerges, resolves also YES. If a company performs those operations without effectively being stopped by (any) state action for 3 months, this also resolves Yes.

Any other actions, banned under the antarctic treaty, but not listed above, do not count!

On ambiguity, will discuss in the comment, and reserve the right to resolve N/A.

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