Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?
Basic
10
Ṁ9152030
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Per Wikipedia, a "Blue Ocean Event", is often defined as "having less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice"
Resolving according to Data Tools | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org) daily data
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Graph of estimates from the model in Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations - Stroeve - 2012 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library.
I added an up to date purple line using NSIDC data. I now think the chance of this happening is very low.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an artificial floating (oceanic) continent or island by 2050
35% chance
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
47% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
43% chance
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
77% chance
Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
4% chance
Will we see the construction of a city underwater by 2050?
12% chance
Will activities banned by the Antarctica Treaty take place before 2030?
47% chance
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
80% chance
Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030?
21% chance
Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030?
79% chance