Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Basic
5
Ṁ1052050
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.
Though there is much alarm being raised about that, there is also interest in opening up the Arctic sea routes to commercial traffic via initiatives such as the Polar Silk Road.
But, how much seaborne traffic is it likely to contribute by 2050?
Will resolve as "Yes" if by 2050 more than 20% of all transoceanic freight is routed through the Arctic. Else it will resolve "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
64% chance
Will the North Pole move more than 100 miles between 2020 and 2025?
77% chance
What power sources will provide at least 10% of the energy used in maritime transportation in 2040.
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
80% chance
Can international shipping achieve the IMO target of 20% reduction of GHG emissions compared to 2008?
27% chance
What will my probability be that these ocean regions have been kept cool by sulfur emissions from ships until 2020?
66% chance
Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?
53% chance
Antarctica cruise leading to oil spill? Before 2030
15% chance
Will the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse before the end of 2050?
50% chance
Will there be an oil spill in Alaska before 2030?
79% chance