What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)
Basic
4
Ṁ87
2041
13
expected

Resolves per Preqin at fund liquidation. Market close may be extended to accommodate the ultimate fund term. The final % answer will be multiplied by 100 for purposes of this market.

Blackstone IX is a 2022 vintage, closed-end buyout fund that focuses on making control and control-oriented private equity investments on a global basis in a diverse range of industries.

As of market creation, Preqin lists the Net IRRs of previous Blackstone flagship funds as follows:

  • Blackstone VIII = n/a

  • Blackstone VII = 14.0%

  • Blackstone VI = 12.0%

  • Blackstone V = 8.2%

  • Blackstone IV = 36.1%

  • Blackstone III = 14.6%

  • Blackstone II = 37.3%

  • Blackstone I = 18.9%

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Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on the historical performance of Blackstone's previous flagship funds, it seems that the net IRR for Blackstone IX could potentially range from around 8.2% to 37.3%, with an average of around 20.2% (excluding Blackstone VIII, for which data is not available). Although there is variability in the past performance, the majority of the funds have delivered a net IRR between 12% and 18.9%.

The current probability of 62.86% appears to be a reasonable estimate considering the historical performance of the Blackstone funds. However, given the limited information available, my confidence in outperforming the current probability is not strong enough to justify placing a bet.

Hence, I would choose to abstain from placing a bet on this market.

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