Can’t find the primary source for this but this article says it won’t happen until 2044.

SF's Transbay Terminal gets $3.4 billion to connect trains

https://ktvu.com/news/transbay-terminal-gets-3-4-billion-to-connect-trains

I contacted the reporter and will update with the reply if I get it.

Sorry I made a dupe. Is there anything that can be done about that?

https://manifold.markets/JimAusman/will-the-california-hsr-from-la-to?r=SmltQXVzbWFu

@JimAusman No issue, good opportunity for arbitrage! :)

What is "high speed rail" for this question? Obviously, the Caltrain and some other urban segments aren't going to be 300kph. The statutory goal for actual transit time for CA HSR is <= 2 hours 40 minutes. Relative to that goal this is fairly priced at 25% imho, though I think something being cobbled together with >= 3 hour transit time that is still called HSR is the likliest outcome.

@AlQuinn sorry for response delay. My expectation is that this market will hinge on the HSR project being completed by the official California agency, but I'd be open to considering resolution alternatives if any are suggested.

The speed and timing goals for the HSR system in progress would meet this market's criteria for "high-speed rail".

Ok, but what if technical compromises are made and/or the planning was overly optimistic, so the final train takes 3hr? Or 4hr? There’s lots of changes that could blur the definition of “high speed rail” under the same nominal project.