There is a long waiting list to get a kidney transplant in the United States - sources vary, but circle around 90k individuals on the list as of market creation.

By end of 2030, will there still be a waiting list?

Note: This market may resolve negatively if there is still a waiting list, but all members of the list expect to receive their transplant without a significant wait (<1 year). Some slack in the system is expected.

The long wait times and challenges associated with receiving a kidney transplant cause significant challenges to those in need. Because a human can live healthily with only one kidney, altruistic individuals can choose to donate a kidney to someone in need. Whether there will be a waitlist in the future is decision-relevant to potential donors, as their decision to donate a kidney may depend on assumptions around when/if there will be alternative solutions such that the kidney transplant waiting list is eliminated in the coming years.

Potential solutions to this issue range from the development of lab-grown organs, increased organ donation rates, changes in policies that restrict who can donate an organ, technological innovations like 3D printing and artificial kidneys, and cross-species transplantation.