This market immediately resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2030, China clearly demonstrates hostility toward Russia. Hostility is defined as any of the following actions:

1. Territorial aggression: An attempt to acquire any of Russia's internationally recognized territory through coercion, military action, or other forms of force.

2. Severing of diplomatic relations: The formal termination of diplomatic ties by China, such as the withdrawal of ambassadors and closure of embassies.

3. Economic warfare: Imposition of significant economic sanctions, trade embargoes, or other major punitive measures targeting Russia.

4. Military hostility: Direct military confrontation, including but not limited to attacks on Russian forces, assets, or infrastructure.

For the purposes of this market, ambiguous or indirect actions (e.g., supporting adversaries of Russia or hostile rhetoric) will not qualify unless they are widely recognized as constituting hostility by reputable international bodies (e.g., the United Nations or major global news outlets).

If no such events occur by January 1, 2030, the market will resolve to NO.

Background:

From https://kyivindependent.com/the-question-isnt-if-china-will-turn-on-russia-but-when:

"Like Czar Nicholas II, Russian President Vladimir Putin has misidentified his primary foe. Fighting a war of choice, he allows the real menace to his country to gather strength. China, not Ukraine, constitutes Russia’s existential threat. In the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), Nicholas fought Japan over Manchuria for concessions that Russia could not monetize, instead of investing in the railways and munitions needed to fight the country’s actual enemy, Germany, a decade later. Defeat in World War I cost Nicholas and his family their lives after the Bolsheviks seized power. Nobles who did not suffer the same violent fate as the czar fled abroad, often dying in penury. The West and Ukraine never intended to invade Russia, let alone take its territory. Who in the West would want it? China, on the other hand, very well might. Its long list of grievances dates back centuries, to the czars who removed large swaths of territory — an area larger than the United States east of the Mississippi River — from China’s sphere of influence."

I will not bet in this market.