Henry Kissinger and other experts consider the possibility of a collapse of Russia.
For the purpose of this market, this means either at least three Russian republics declaring their independence or Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory.
Territories in Ukraine including Crimea are not taken into account for this market.
A successful coup is not enough if the new leader still control all Russia.
I will not bet on this market.
Related questions
@Zardoru It's been two protests, both apparently with participants in the four digits. However, this seems very far from meaning any real chance (or even majority desire!) to secede.
@PS (basically, I feel this market is @FennGreengrass saying yes and everybody else saying no)
"Russian republics declaring their independence"
I assume success is implied.
"Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory"
Wikipedia says "a breakdown in political power, law enforcement, and civil society, leading to a state of near-anarchy". This seems like a somewhat high bar. Mere civil unrest or even rebellion wouldn't be enough.
@BenjaminIkuta Yes, success is implied. That means former republic actually runs its territory, even if not recognized by ONU. States not controlling all the territory they are supposed to rule are fairly common in the world.
@BenjaminIkuta I don't want to define this condition too precisely. Size and population should count.
@Zardoru and "failed state", I take that to mean some inability to wield the levers of power internally, not just losing territory.
/Odoacre/will-the-russian-federation-break-u
/Odoacre/will-any-of-the-21-republics-of-rus
Some more markets about this
@BenjaminIkuta The first one is any kind of split. The second one is about a split on the republic lines.
