Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025? | Manifold

Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?

Plus

40

Ṁ1349

2026

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

How much prompting is allowed for this to still resolve YES? If human researchers give the AI their notes to write into a paper, does that count?

@HarlanStewart Yes, your example would count.

Does this include only the flagship journal, or also things like "Nature Physics"?

@ScottLawrence Only the flagship journal.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 22%

Related questions

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?

Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025

Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules