Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
1,000
3.00GEFS looks like holding steady with maybe very slight warming until the 25th; edit and then a good deal more variability on the 30th and 31st... (raw absolute numbers below)
recent trends seem to favor ~+0.05 offset for remaing days (0 to 0.1 offset range most realistic)....
I am expecting the risk of that +0.1 offset will likely make 1.26+ more appetizing until the new year anyway and continue to flatten the distribution for me...
Raw (absolute, 06 hour spacing) GEFS numbers for last 4 runs:
-- Processing ./gefs.20241220_00
-- Processing 105 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-20-2024: 12.392 (day over day delta: 0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-21-2024: 12.398 (day over day delta: 0.005)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-22-2024: 12.376 (day over day delta: -0.022)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-23-2024: 12.322 (day over day delta: -0.054)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-24-2024: 12.342 (day over day delta: 0.019)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-25-2024: 12.414 (day over day delta: 0.073)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-26-2024: 12.377 (day over day delta: -0.037)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-27-2024: 12.305 (day over day delta: -0.072)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-28-2024: 12.273 (day over day delta: -0.031)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-29-2024: 12.248 (day over day delta: -0.025)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-30-2024: 12.234 (day over day delta: -0.014)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-31-2024: 12.189 (day over day delta: -0.045)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-01-2025: 12.102 (day over day delta: -0.087)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-02-2025: 12.040 (day over day delta: -0.062)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-03-2025: 12.034 (day over day delta: -0.006)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-04-2025: 12.012 (day over day delta: -0.022)
-- Processing ./gefs.20241220_06
-- Processing 105 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-21-2024: 12.403 (day over day delta: -0.194)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-22-2024: 12.369 (day over day delta: -0.034)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-23-2024: 12.318 (day over day delta: -0.051)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-24-2024: 12.343 (day over day delta: 0.025)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-25-2024: 12.406 (day over day delta: 0.063)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-26-2024: 12.371 (day over day delta: -0.035)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-27-2024: 12.302 (day over day delta: -0.068)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-28-2024: 12.273 (day over day delta: -0.030)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-29-2024: 12.254 (day over day delta: -0.019)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-30-2024: 12.147 (day over day delta: -0.107)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-31-2024: 12.185 (day over day delta: 0.038)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-01-2025: 12.136 (day over day delta: -0.049)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-02-2025: 12.107 (day over day delta: -0.029)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-03-2025: 12.073 (day over day delta: -0.034)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-04-2025: 12.008 (day over day delta: -0.065)
-- Processing ./gefs.20241220_12
-- Processing 105 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-21-2024: 12.408 (day over day delta: 0.075)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-22-2024: 12.381 (day over day delta: -0.026)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-23-2024: 12.326 (day over day delta: -0.055)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-24-2024: 12.333 (day over day delta: 0.007)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-25-2024: 12.397 (day over day delta: 0.063)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-26-2024: 12.361 (day over day delta: -0.036)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-27-2024: 12.288 (day over day delta: -0.073)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-28-2024: 12.274 (day over day delta: -0.014)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-29-2024: 12.261 (day over day delta: -0.014)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-30-2024: 12.336 (day over day delta: 0.075)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-31-2024: 12.191 (day over day delta: -0.145)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-01-2025: 12.130 (day over day delta: -0.061)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-02-2025: 12.086 (day over day delta: -0.044)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-03-2025: 12.038 (day over day delta: -0.048)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-04-2025: 12.004 (day over day delta: -0.033)
-- Processing ./gefs.20241220_18
-- Processing 105 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-21-2024: 12.434 (day over day delta: 0.756)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-22-2024: 12.415 (day over day delta: -0.019)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-23-2024: 12.338 (day over day delta: -0.077)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-24-2024: 12.325 (day over day delta: -0.013)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-25-2024: 12.391 (day over day delta: 0.066)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-26-2024: 12.352 (day over day delta: -0.039)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-27-2024: 12.283 (day over day delta: -0.069)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-28-2024: 12.260 (day over day delta: -0.023)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-29-2024: 12.263 (day over day delta: 0.003)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-30-2024: 12.380 (day over day delta: 0.117)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 12-31-2024: 12.215 (day over day delta: -0.166)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-01-2025: 12.155 (day over day delta: -0.059)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-02-2025: 12.096 (day over day delta: -0.059)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-03-2025: 12.042 (day over day delta: -0.055)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 01-04-2025: 12.009 (day over day delta: -0.032)
Some more uncertainty compared to last time I updated as ERA5 temps are coming in slightly warmer than predicted by GEFS for last few days, so I added some offsets to my chart for it (0.0C offset most likely, followed by 0.05 C offset by looking at recent trends)... Considering this I'm betting to more flatten/spread the distribution probabilities ...
for 0.0C offset:
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (December 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.087 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.255)):
1.211 C +-0.097for 0.05C offset (i.e., raising remainings GEFS forecast temps by such an amount to count for recent relatively cool temps against ERA5):
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (December 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.089 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.277)):
1.233 C +-0.097I still think a lower temp is undervalued -- polymarket currently has cumulatively 87% at >1.25 C...
My model still has a completely different distribution with most of the fatness of the tail to the lower end than rather the right, although offsets > 0.1C are probably unrealistic given recent trends.... (-0.05 to 0.05C being the most realistic in my opinion)
https://polymarket.com/event/december-2024-temperature-increase-c?tid=1734214146975
has median and mode in the 1.25 to 1.29 range.
Whats up JRP?
@ChristopherRandles Some chance I might have a problem with my code as I had fix it for the end of the year, but the numbers don't seem problematic...
Here is the forecast temps I have for ERA5 (adjusted from GEFS) for December:
[13.55, 13.53, 13.55, 13.6, 13.64, 13.65, 13.62, 13.55, 13.51, 13.51, 13.48, 13.44, 13.430757705957095, 13.373059592623814, 13.313321297735449, 13.282410913125263, 13.253724678207824, 13.231343624254196, 13.2074316710671, 13.163967704105062, 13.134913587125213, 13.127953159425445, 13.141402768851922, 13.153049624332912, 13.159709925496253, 13.157221630740674, 13.137775229457954, 13.124707862031219, 13.069805457107867, 13.048573186559244, 13.041853696510113]
Might have been too bullish yesterday on the meta prediction of GEFS long range being too high for rest of the month; its not stabilized yet, but I don't think I'm too far off.
The GEFS to ERA5 error last month was on the high side (0.15 to 0.2) towards the end of the month and had been for the beginning of this month as well, but now it looks like its regressing back to the mean, so now I'm going to assume an error of 0.0 for the rest of the month...
If the error for GEFS->ERA5 is roughly 0 for rest of the month (purple line) it still puts most of the probability below 1.255....
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (December 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.086 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.243)):
1.199 C +-0.097This is a more modest (secondary) error adjustment from ERA5->GISTEMP (after the above) so I don't think 1.2 C should be too far off (we'll see how good GEFS is...).
In short, I think Polymarket is too high. But, as usual the bins are small relative to the confidence intervals....
I have done poorly when it comes to predicting and updating on which gistemp final temp (which run) they end up choosing, so this time I'm going to be more conservative when that time comes...
Note: I have one more bucket than this market because I also want to know whether it will break the record....
@parhizj if you think you are right then I think 1.3+ should be very unlikely at
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-2024-per
@ChristopherRandles Yeah I’m not sure exactly how that is calculated by gistemp… I realized you can’t make assumptions when it comes to climate code…